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Forecasting

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  1. 2.8 hrs • 11/1/2015

    Harry Dent has been predicting for some time that we are about to enter a prolonged downturn, one that will be looked at by historians as a classic economic depression, due to demographic factors. One of the largest generations in history—the Baby Boomers—are leaving the workplace, either due to planned retirement or involuntarily (due to layoffs or not being able to find work), which will have a profound impact on all sectors of our economy. This economic downturn could have been swifter and the pain much less, had the Fed allowed it to happen naturally. However, due to several rounds of quantitative easing, essentially pumping “free money” into the economy, the Fed has not only delayed the inevitable, but they have ensured that the downturn will be much longer and much more severe than it could have been. Harry Dent believes that the Fed cannot keep the bubble from popping much longer—and when it does pop—every individual will need to be prepared for a period he calls an “economic winter.” In this program, you’ll learn the personal and business strategies that will be essential to protect and preserve your assets, and the few areas of the economy which will still do well during this winter period. This is essential listening for every American citizen.

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    What to Do When the Bubble Pops

    Presented by Harry S. Dent Jr.
    2.8 hrs • 11/1/15
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  2. 4.8 hrs • 11/1/2015

    In this nine-session course from Harry Dent, you learn what to expect in the winter economic season and the best business strategies to stay ahead of your competition. Is your business prepared to survive and prosper in the winter season of our economy? How do demographic trends impact your business? If you knew that we are heading into another financial bust, how prepared is your business to stay ahead of your competition? What do you know about the spending wave, S-curve, sunspot, geopolitical, and Treasury bond cycles? How are you applying the new direct model of business to your own business? We all know it can be very difficult and time consuming to understand our economy. But we also know that whatever state our economy is in - now and, more importantly, in the future - we have to be prepared and adapt accordingly. The Dent Business Academy: Business Strategies for the Winter Season is Harry Dent’s first audio course designed to help small business owners understand the winter season of our economy and how to survive and prosper in the years ahead. In this nine-session course, you will learn how the use of demographics and other cycles can help predict (with more certainty) what to expect in this winter season and the best strategies to use in order to evaluate, manage, and possibly change your business plan and stay ahead of your competition. Course outline: Session 1: Four-Season of the Economy: Different Stages for Each Season Session 2: The Macro Economic Cycles That Drive Our Economy: Boom and Bust Periods and How We Can See the Winter Season Ahead Session 3: Summary Strategies for Surviving and Prospering in the Winter Season Session 4: S-Curve and Product Life Cycles for Business Micro Seasons and Strategies Session 5: Consumer Life Cycle and Micro Demographic Opportunities Session 6: Immigration, Migration, and Local Demographic Trends Session 7: International Trends: Emerging Markets Will Dominate Growth Moving Forward Session 8: The New Direct Model of Business: The Marketing Revolution Session 9: The New Network Organization: Bottoms-Up Not Top-Down

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    Dent Business Academy

    4.8 hrs • 11/1/15
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  3. 4.6 hrs • 4/1/2015 • Unabridged

    We weigh every significant decision based on how it will affect our future. But when it comes to figuring that out, we mostly make the process up as we go along. While financial professional Peter Neuwirth can’t help you actually predict the future, he can offer a simple, systematic way to make much better guesses about it—and so make better decisions. Neuwirth offers an accessible, step-by-step guide to using the powerful concept of Present Value—which allows you to determine the value today of something that might happen in the future—to evaluate all of the outcomes that might arise from choosing one path as opposed to another. Using examples that anyone can relate to, Neuwirth walks you through the process. Your old refrigerator doesn’t work as well as it used to—should you buy a new one right away or muddle through for a while? You’re offered a great discount on a service you don’t need at the moment but eventually will—buy the service now or wait? With just a little math and some common sense, you can compare future costs and benefits with present costs and benefits and make “apples to apples” comparisons. This book will be indispensable for anyone who has ever had to figure out whether to stick with an awful job or follow his or her bliss, fix that old car or buy a new one, increase 401(k) contributions or keep the same take-home pay, and a thousand other decisions.

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    What's Your Future Worth?

    4.6 hrs • 4/1/15 • Unabridged
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  4. 6.1 hrs • 2/24/2015 • Unabridged

    When Ram Charan (and Larry Bossidy) published Execution, they saw it as the playbook for both senior and middle managers in “the new game.” But now, the game has changed. Business leaders find themselves operating in an era of persistent uncertainty moving at an unprecedented rate of change. Now Ram Charan returns with a new message for this challenging time.  In The Attacker’s Advantage, Charan reveals the upside of uncertainty for those leaders who are nimbly positioned to anticipate the catalysts of disruption and embrace change. He updates and adapts the principles of his previous bestsellers to address the current turbulent business environment, cutting through the veil of complexity to concentrate on the new customer needs and expectations and providing the tools for corporate leaders to take their companies to a higher level.

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    The Attacker’s Advantage

    6.1 hrs • 2/24/15 • Unabridged
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  5. 9.2 hrs • 2/24/2015 • Unabridged

    Few would argue with the fact that, on many fronts, we are a world in crisis. And there are two sides to every crisis, be it a leadership crisis, an economic crisis, an education crisis, or a moral crisis. The two sides to crisis are danger and opportunity. Robert Kiyosaki’s new book, Second Chance: For Your Money and Your Life, uses the lessons from the past and a brutal assessment of the present to prepare readers to see—and seize—the future. If readers can train their minds to see what their eyes cannot, in a world that is becoming increasingly more “invisible”, and moving at a high rate of speed, they can have a second chance at creating the life they’ve always wanted. Like it or not, we are all involved in the greatest evolutionary event in human history. The Industrial Age is over and the Information Age continues to accelerate. The visible agents of change have become invisible and harder to see. The future belongs to those who can train their minds, use the past to see the future, and take the steps to create the positive change they want to see in their lives. Second Chance is a guide to understanding how the past will shape the future and how you can use Information Age tools and insights to create a fresh start. This book is a guide to facing head-on, the dangers of the crises around us—and steps and tips for seizing the opportunities they present.

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    Second Chance

    9.2 hrs • 2/24/15 • Unabridged
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  6. 18.3 hrs • 2/1/2015 • Unabridged

    A forecast of the most important, game-changing trends—and how to manage and profit from them to improve your life. We live in a time of complex and radical change. Those that are ill-prepared for the seismic shifts set to occur over the next thirty years will be in for a rough ride. From leading global futurist and advisor James Canton, the acclaimed author of The Extreme Future and Technofutures, comes Future Smart: the essential blueprint on what’s coming next. It details the key changes—in health and medicine, technology and communication, the global economy, the earth’s climate, energy, and business—that every person, company, and government must understand in order to not only adapt accordingly but thrive in the coming decades. Going beyond prediction, Canton shows listeners how to get “future-smart” with strategic steps they can take today to navigate tomorrow successfully.

    Available Formats: Download, CD, MP3 CD
    Future Smart by James Canton

    Future Smart

    18.3 hrs • 2/1/15 • Unabridged
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    Also: CD, MP3 CD
  7. 14.9 hrs • 10/1/2014 • Unabridged

    From the chief economic commentator for the Financial Times comes a brilliant tour d’horizon of the new global economy and its trajectory. There have been many books that have sought to explain the causes and courses of the financial and economic crisis which began in 2007–8. The Shifts and the Shocks is not another detailed history of the crisis but the most persuasive and complete account yet published of what the crisis should teach us about modern economies and economics. The book identifies the origin of the crisis in the complex interaction between globalization, hugely destabilizing global imbalances, and our dangerously fragile financial system. In the eurozone, these sources of instability were multiplied by the tragically defective architecture of the monetary union. It also shows how much of the orthodoxy that shaped monetary and financial policy before the crisis occurred was complacent and wrong. In doing so, it mercilessly reveals the failures of the financial, political, and intellectual elites who ran the system. The book also examines what has been done to reform the financial and monetary systems since the worst of the crisis passed. “Are we now on a sustainable course?” Wolf asks. “The answer is no.” He explains with great clarity why “further crises seem certain” and why the management of the eurozone in particular “guarantees a huge political crisis at some point in the future.” Wolf provides far more ambitious and comprehensive plans for reform than any currently being implemented. Written with all the intellectual command and trenchant judgment that have made Martin Wolf one of the world’s most influential economic commentators, The Shifts and the Shocks matches impressive analysis with no-holds-barred criticism and persuasive prescription for a more stable future. It is a book no one with an interest in global affairs will want to neglect.

    Available Formats: Download, CD

    The Shifts and the Shocks

    14.9 hrs • 10/1/14 • Unabridged
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    Also: CD
  8. 11.0 hrs • 3/1/2014 • Unabridged

    Political gridlock in Washington, lingering effects of the financial crisis, unemployment and the skills gap of our work force, the mediocre K-12 educational system: Are our best days behind us? Joel Kurtzman persuasively shows why all the talk about America’s decline is not only baseless but dead wrong. Our best days are, in fact, ahead of us. Four transformational forces—unrivaled manufacturing depth, soaring levels of creativity, massive new energy sources, and gigantic amounts of capital waiting to be invested—have been gathering steam. When combined they will provide the foundation for a much stronger economy, robust growth, and broad-based prosperity that will propel the United States to new heights. One endlessly repeated anxiety is that “we don’t make anything here anymore.” The reality, though, is that the US is the world’s dominant manufacturing power—and growing. American companies produce 20 percent of the world’s goods in the US and perhaps another 15 to 20 percent outside our country. And much of what we make is recession-proof—such as software, jetliners, medical devices, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and food. Kurtzman reveals the stories of the unsung heroes who are the creative force leading the second American century, describing the payoff of the investment in our best minds. American companies have stunning levels of talent and creativity at work in the world’s fastest growing economic sectors—biotech, pharmaceuticals, computer hardware and software, telecommunications, advanced manufacturing, materials science, and aeronautical and space engineering. In these fields, Americans are without peer and consistently break new ground. We are coming to the realization that America is no longer beholden to the despots of foreign energy. Thanks to advances in technology developed in the US, we now have among the world’s largest energy reserves, and are richer in energy resources than Saudi Arabia and second only to Russia. These three strengths—manufacturing, soaring levels of creativity, and energy independence—will be magnified and synergistically combined with the unprecedented amount of capital that now lies idle. US companies of all types are hoarding cash and securities worth more than $4 trillion—an amount larger than the world’s fourth largest economy, Germany. When the money starts flowing and is invested, it will rapidly propel every part of the economy forward.

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    Unleashing the Second American Century

    11.0 hrs • 3/1/14 • Unabridged
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  9. 0 reviews 0 5 5 5 out of 5 stars 5/5
    11.1 hrs • 1/7/2014 • Unabridged

    Bestselling author and financial guru Harry Dent shows why we’re facing a decade-long “great deflation”—and what to do about it. Throughout his long career as an economic forecaster, Harry Dent has relied on demographics—the ultimate tool for predicting both big and small trends, decades in advance. Now he explains what’s going to happen to our economy with the accelerating retirements of the Baby Boomers. Inflation rises when a larger than usual block of younger people enter the workforce, and it wanes when large numbers of older people retire, downsize their homes, and cut their spending. The mass retirement of the Boomers won’t just hold back inflation; it will actually cause deflation—with a downturn and periodic crises from 2014 until about 2023. Dent explores the implications of his controversial predictions for retirement planning, healthcare, real estate, education, investing, and business strategies. His advice will help readers survive and prosper during the challenging years ahead.

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    The Demographic Cliff

    11.1 hrs • 1/7/14 • Unabridged
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  10. 0 reviews 0 5 3.7 3 out of 5 stars 3.7/5
    15.7 hrs • 9/27/2012 • Unabridged

    Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes the blog FiveThirtyEight, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are essential.

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    The Signal and the Noise

    15.7 hrs • 9/27/12 • Unabridged
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  11. 12.9 hrs • 9/20/2011 • Unabridged

    In his most recent New York Times bestselling book, The Great Depression Ahead, Harry S. Dent, Jr., predicted that the stimulus plan created in response to the first crisis would hit demographic and debt saturation headwinds and ultimately fail. In 2010, the stimulus plan had started to fail, and it was already stalling by the first quarter of 2011. The Great Crash Ahead outlines why the next crash and crisis is inevitable, and just around the corner—coming between 2012 and 2014. With incisive critical analysis and historical examples, this book lays bare the traditional assumptions of economics. Dent shows that the government doesn’t drive our economy, consumers and businesses do; that the Fed does not create most of the money in our economy, the private banking system does; and that the largest generation in history is now saving for or moving into retirement, meaning slowing growth. This is the new normal! Our banking system borrowed to lend for the first time in history with unprecedented leverage and debt levels of $42 trillion, way beyond the massive government debt. But the government’s promises and unfunded liabilities take the cake, at an estimated $66 trillion and growing! These massive debts will have to be restructured in a time of slowing spending, and this means a deflationary crisis, which is very different from the inflationary crisis of the 1970s and requires very different personal, investment, and business strategies. Dent and Johnson outline these strategies in very practical detail. In the coming years, the greatest surprise will be that the U.S. dollar becomes the safe haven and appreciates just when everyone is calling for it to crash, while the gold and silver bubbles burst along with the stock and commodity bubbles. And real estate will see another round of declines just when everyone thought it could go no lower. The Great Crash Ahead is about making smart, cautious investments—avoiding the sort of high-risk, high-profit investment schemes that sank the world economy. The road to recovery will be filled with challenges and will require massive change, such as debt restructuring, plans for greater employment, the restructuring of social welfare programs such as social security and health care, budget cuts, and higher taxes—in short, a revision of the kind of lifestyle that characterized the “Roaring 2000s.” The good news is this process will eliminate tens of trillions of dollars of debt and can make way for growth again as the echo boom generation ascends. Or we can continue on our present course and end up like the Japanese, with no growth and high debt two decades later.

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    The Great Crash Ahead

    By Harry S. Dent Jr., with Rodney Johnson
    12.9 hrs • 9/20/11 • Unabridged
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  12. 2.2 hrs • 6/30/2011 • Unabridged

    America has been through the biggest financial crisis since the great Depression, unemployment numbers are frightening, median wages have been flat since the 1970s, and it is common to expect that things will get worse before they get better. Certainly, the multi-decade stagnation is not yet over. How will we get out of this mess? One political party tries to increase government spending even when we have no good plan for paying for ballooning programs like Medicare and Social Security. The other party seems to think tax cuts will raise revenue and has a record of creating bigger fiscal disasters than the first. Where does this madness come from? As Cowen argues, our economy has enjoyed low-hanging fruit since the seventeenth century: free land, immigrant labor, and powerful new technologies. But during the last forty years, the low-hanging fruit started disappearing, and we started pretending it was still there. We have failed to recognize that we are at a technological plateau. The fruit trees are barer than we want to believe. That’s it. That is what has gone wrong and that is why our politics are crazy. Cowen reveals the underlying causes of our past prosperity and how we will generate it again. This is a passionate call for a new respect of scientific innovations that benefit not only the powerful elites, but humanity as a whole.

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    The Great Stagnation

    2.2 hrs • 6/30/11 • Unabridged
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  13. 7.9 hrs • 9/2/2010 • Unabridged

    How bad will the current recession get? According to Eric Janszen, we could be facing an unemployment rate of over 10 percent; half of all retail stores boarded up; skeletons of unfinished buildings in our cities; and tax revenues down by 30 percent, leading to big cuts in government services. Meanwhile, inflation will keep rising as the Fed is forced to devalue the dollar, because foreign countries won’t lend to us anymore. It sounds grim, but the good news is that this crisis will open the door to a saner economic future if we recognize the opportunity to correct decades of bad policy. America can wean itself from the debt-financed growth of the past thirty years and restructure to grow based on old-fashioned savings and investment. Janszen shows that the key is not more big government but deploying our unique capacity for innovation through private-public partnerships. He calls for a modern New Deal that develops twenty-first century industries such as biotechnology, alternative energy, and nanotechnology. And he shows how our financial markets can adapt to make it happen. This is an essential book for everyone who is struggling to understand our current predicament.

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    The Postcatastrophe Economy

    7.9 hrs • 9/2/10 • Unabridged
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  14. 13.6 hrs • 5/13/2010 • Unabridged

    This myth-shattering book reveals the methods Nouriel Roubini used to foretell the current crisis before other economists saw it coming and shows how those methods can help us make sense of the present and prepare for the future. Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini electrified his profession and the larger financial community by predicting the current crisis well in advance of anyone else. Unlike most in his profession, who treat economic disasters as freakish once-in-a-lifetime events without clear cause, Roubini, after decades of careful research around the world, realized that they were both probable and predictable. Armed with a blend of historical analysis and global economics, Roubini has forced politicians, policy makers, investors, and market watchers to face a long-neglected truth: financial systems are inherently fragile and prone to collapse. Drawing on the parallels from many countries and centuries, Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm, a professor of economic history and a New York Times Magazine writer, show that financial cataclysms are as old and as ubiquitous as capitalism itself. All of these crises have much in common with the current downturn. Bringing lessons of earlier episodes to bear on our present predicament, Roubini and Mihm show how we can recognize and grapple with the inherent instability of the global financial system and plan for our immediate future. Perhaps most important, the authors—considering theories, statistics, and mathematical models with the skepticism that recent history warrants—explain how the world’s economy can get out of the mess we’re in, and stay out. In Roubini’s shadow, economists and investors are increasingly realizing that they can no longer afford to consider crises the black swans of financial history. A vital and timeless book, Crisis Economics proves calamities to be not only predictable but also preventable and, with the right medicine, curable.

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    Crisis Economics

    13.6 hrs • 5/13/10 • Unabridged
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  15. 9.6 hrs • 1/5/2010 • Unabridged

    Most of those who look at China with interest, fear, reprobation, courtesy, hope, or simple curiosity see the future and sustainability of China as adapting to the Western economic and value system. But what is the scenario from a Chinese point of view? Taking an inside-out approach, John and Doris Naisbitt explain what enabled China to change in only thirty years from a nation of poverty and backwardness to become the third largest economy in the world, beat Germany as export champion, and challenge America as the most competitive. China has reinvented itself as if it were a huge enterprise, developing a company culture that fits the demands of the enterprise and its people on the path to modernity and wealth. Looking for patterns that form the picture of the new China, the Naisbitts found what was of much greater dimension and importance than the economic rise of China: China is creating an entirely new social and economic system. It is creating a political counter-model to Western modern democracy fitting to Chinese history and society, just as America created a model fitting to its history, society, and values more than two hundred years ago. Economically and politically, China has left the path of imitation, determined to become the innovation country of the world. In the next decades, China will not only change the global economy, it will challenge Western democracy with its own model.

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    China’s Megatrends

    9.6 hrs • 1/5/10 • Unabridged
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  16. 3.6 hrs • 8/1/2009 • Abridged

    Ittelson’s masterwork will give you that firm grasp of “the numbers” necessary for business success. Financial Statements is a perfect introduction to financial accounting for non-financial managers, stock-market investors, undergraduate business and MBA students, lawyers, lenders, entrepreneurs, and more. Most introductory finance and accounting books fail either because they are written “by accountants for accountants” or the authors “dumb down” the concepts until they are virtually useless. Financial Statements deftly shows that all this accounting and financial reporting stuff is not rocket science and that you can understand it! Ittelson empowers non-financial managers by clearly and simply demonstrating how the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement work together to offer a “snapshot” of any company’s financial health. Every term is defined in simple, understandable language. Every concept is explained with a basic, straightforward transaction example. As a result, you’ll be able to see exactly how each transaction affects the three key financial statements of the enterprise.

    Available Formats: Download, Digital Rental

    Financial Statements

    3.6 hrs • 8/1/09 • Abridged
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